Monday, May 12, 2008

Living in Denial

That's where Airbus is apparently entrenched:
Airbus’s Global Market Forecast (GMF) for 2007 through 2026 expects world passenger traffic to increase by 4.9% per annum and the number of frequencies offered on passenger routes to more than double. This growth is buoyed by the continuing growth of emerging economic nations.

Accordingly, Airbus projects that the world’s commercial aircraft fleet, including both passenger (from 100 seats to very large aircraft, VLA) and freighter aircraft, will grow from 14,980 at the end of 2006 to nearly 33,000 by 2026. While passenger traffic demand will nearly triple, airlines will more than double their fleets of passenger aircraft (with more than 100 seats) from 13,284 in 2006 to 28,534 in 2026.
Yes, we understand that companies like Airbus and Boeing (and GM and Chrysler and...) can't just throw in the towel. But, really.

The idea that thousands of new airplanes will be needed to fly people who will in no way be able to afford the cost of flying because that cost is so inextricably tied to the cost of petroleum is, well, just blatantly uninformed.