The logical conclusion from these trends, I think, is that oil production beyond 2009 is likely to fall well short of the sum of growing demand and increasing declines in old fields. They lend credibility to the statistical analysis done by Chris Skrebowski that indicates we will see the benefits of numerous new, primarily land-based projects scheduled to come on stream in 2008 and 2009, after which supplies will become significantly tighter, falling off a cliff by 2014.Please read these numbers carefully and understand their significance. These predictions are not from someone considered to be a Peak Oil theorist but, rather, a conventional economic observer.
Considering all of the above, my five year forecast for the oil price range is:
2008: $80 - $140
2009: $105 - $195
2010: $150 - $250
2011: $175 - $325
2012: $275 - $500
The idea of $200 per barrel in just two years is becoming increasingly more likely. Plans for dealing with this cost in fueling your vehicles and heating/cooling your home should begin now as the Family Budget will soon take a much different shape.
The reason is simple: The Oil Cost of Everything...