Very cool.

Not the Type of International Press Coverage...

...that most Chambers are interested in receiving. From London's Financial Times:

Jefferson County, in which Birmingham is located, is one of the most indebted municipal governments in the US, owing an estimated $7,000 (£3,550, €4,500) for every adult and child. In recent years it took advantage of easy lending conditions in the municipal bond market, mainly to fix its ailing sewerage system. But since the credit crunch started last summer, funding costs have soared and investors have been less willing to lend. The county is now struggling to meet its interest payments.

If it cannot reach some kind of agreement with its lenders in the coming weeks, Jefferson could become the site of the largest municipal bankruptcy seen in the US - overshadowing even California's Orange County fiasco from the 1990s.

Yes, sprawl growth is one of the reasons for this situation. After all, why were bonds needed for all of this infrastructure in the first place? Yep. To pay for sprawl.

More on the Ridiculous Practice of...

...using food to fuel our engines rather than our bodies. This Washington Post article discusses this troubling trend:

Now, however, the legislation is being criticized for making food more expensive while gasoline prices continue to climb. Rick Perry, a Republican who succeeded Bush as Texas governor, has asked the Environmental Protection Agency to waive half of the "misguided" ethanol requirements because of rising food costs; every penny increase in per-bushel corn prices costs his state's livestock industry $6 million a year, he said.
...
Development specialists have also joined the fray. "While many are worrying about filling their gas tanks, many others around the world are struggling to fill their stomachs, and it is getting more and more difficult every day," World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick said in a recent speech.

The end result? We are exacerbating major food shortages in order to fill our fuel tanks. It's as if we've become sheeps following a sprawl shepherd--entranced to the vagaries of our 40 mile commutes.

Sprawl Schools...

...in 2006 I published a law review article with the University of Pacific law review that discussed the advantages of incorporating smart growth principles into school building.

A variety of counter-responses discussed on my proposals for more neighborhood schools--ones that many students could walk or bike to--did not make financial sense because schools could be more cheaply built on the suburban and exurban fringes. This was primarily because land was cheaper in those sprawl areas.

Unfortunately, land costs are only part of the overall school cost equation. In this case, another major expense is the fuel costs of busing children to these schools built on the fringes.

This story is bearing out that concern and converting it into a reality:

f you think you have gas pump sticker shock, consider the Putnam County School system, which uses about 7,000 gallons of diesel every 20 days to keep 50 big buses running over routes that total 2,668 miles.

The big yellow vehicles get about eight miles to the gallon. It takes 81 gallons to fill the tank of one.

Here's another way to look at the bus fuel nightmare: the current year's budget contained $246,000 for diesel fuel, but officials recently had to get a budget amendment, bumping it up to $316,000.

"Our actual costs for fuel this year came in at 57-percent higher than what was budgeted," said Schools Director Kathleen Airhart.

Do you naysayers still need more proof?

$10 Per Gallon?

No way, you say?

Well, it's not just a shock headline but a real possibility according to this article:

Oil recently hit an all-time high of nearly $120 a barrel, more than double its early 2007 price of about $50 a barrel. It closed Friday at $118.52.

The forecasts calling for a jump to between $7 and $10 a gallon are based on the view that the price of crude is on its way to $200 in two to three years.

Translating this price into dollars and cents at the gas pump, one of our forecasters, the chairman of Houston-based Dune Energy, Alan Gaines, sees gas rising to $7–$8 a gallon. The other, a commodities tracker at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., Sean Brodrick, projects a range of $8 to $10 a gallon.

While $7–$10 a gallon would be ground-breaking in America, these prices would not be trendsetting internationally. For example, European drivers are already shelling out $9 a gallon (which includes a $2-a-gallon tax).

Folks, I've never been the alarmist type so I even hesitate to post articles discussing these types of projections. Except that, my extensive research reveals that they are quite likely to be accurate.

Soon, major changes in where we live, work, worship, and play will be the norm. This is why locating to a smart growth community is so important.

Headline: "How much your groceries will cost in 10 years?"

There's no doubt that we're going to have to spend more on food. And yet, compared to other parts of the world, we're lucky. We spend 13 per cent of our household budget on food, down from 30 per cent, 50 years ago. For a family in the developing world, food is likely to be between 50 and 75 per cent of the total, according to the World Bank. What's more, in poorer countries, people buy raw ingredients, so if the price of corn doubles, that seriously affects their buying power.

Read more here.

Kunstler Gets...

...Business Week coverage. One excerpt from the interview:

Why is suburbia now threatened?

Cheap oil is what made suburbia possible. But we'll run into problems with spot shortages. As we get into trouble with these supplies, our economy will suffer. Major instabilities in the system will present themselves much sooner than we are led to believe. And by that I mean the way we produce food, the way we conduct commerce, and the way we move around.

When will all that happen?

The rise and fall of oil production is asymmetrical. In other words, it'll be a steeper, rockier tumble down than the steady increase going up. My own sense of things is that we will be in very serious trouble inside of five years.

Sanity Starts to Set in...

The campaign against climate change could be set back by the global food crisis, as foreign populations turn against measures to use foodstuffs as substitutes for fossil fuels...One factor being blamed for the price hikes is the use of government subsidies to promote the use of corn for ethanol production. An estimated 30% of America’s corn crop now goes to fuel, not food.

Read the whole story here.

The issue of climate change is certainly an important one. However, the solution is notto try and salvage the commuter sprawl system by replacing oil with food.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that "food is for eating, not for driving". Meaning that, using food to energize motor vehicles instead of humans essentially prioritizes the automobile ahead of the human.

What a strange set of standards we have.

Very concerning:

On Tuesday in Washington, DC, a regulatory body called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission held public hearings on this very question. Farmers and food producers argued that the market was "broken," suggesting that the steep rise in the price of staple crops was hurting everyone -- farmers as well as the people they feed. "The market is broken, it's out of whack," said Billy Dunavant, head of a cotton-producing firm in the United States, at the Tuesday hearing.

New Term to Learn...

..."Resource Protectionism":

The credit crisis has taken an ugly turn, with a number of countries banning rice exports, causing the price of the staple to soar above US$1,000 per tonne, treble its level a year ago. Politically and economically, the world has moved decisively in the direction of protectionism and seems likely to continue further along the protectionist path. It's worth looking at what this trend may entail and how we might minimize its costs.

The most damaging aspect of the current burst of protectionism is the refusal by countries supplying food staples to export to their usual customers; this could actually make people starve.

Keep an eye out on this issue. Daily Sprawl predicts that this, more than a lack of available supply, could be the one that leads to resource shortages (which, in turn, begats resource rationing).

Kudos to CNNMoney.com...

...for this very informative (though often saddening) series called "America's Money: In Their Own Words"--first hand accounts, many of which find the American sprawl system to have played a major role.

My Op-Ed Piece...

...from today's Montgomery Advertiser:

Unfortunately, experts from every sector of the energy economy are starting to realize that the world has already consumed the vast majority of cheap and easily available oil. Indeed, even top executives from several petroleum companies are warning about this very real problem.

The fact is that without cheap oil our lifestyles will dramatically change. After all, oil isn't just used in cars. Instead, things like plastics, pesticides and many medicines are derived from petroleum byproducts. Without the oil, there would be no byproducts to manufacture these important products.

Same Story...

...different city:

Families such as the Colvins are trapped in homes worth far less than what they paid. Speculators, who helped fuel both the boom and its collapse, are also stuck, their get-rich-quick properties now money pits.

Meanwhile, cities and townships such as Buffalo, Otsego, Albertville and St. Michael, which were in the throes of building schools, roads and expanded water-treatment plants to match their growing populations, are left with big bills and the prospect of a dwindling tax base.

This is the unfortunate thing about the whole sprawl fiasco: the real effects on families. Unfortunately, the market will likely be ruthless in its lack of sympathy.

Sad.

How Much Water Do Your Purchases Use?

This NYT blog item discusses an interesting new website that measures how much water goes into creating many consumer products.

Here's a hint--it's much more than you probably think. One proposal is to stop water sprawl by buying more used products, thus "amoritizing" the water cost over multiple sources.

The Future of Transportation?

The freight railway industry is enjoying its biggest building boom in nearly a century, a turnaround as abrupt as it is ambitious. It is largely fueled by growing global trade and rising fuel costs for 18-wheelers. In 2002, the major railroads laid off 4,700 workers; in 2006, they hired more than 5,000. Profit has doubled industry-wide since 2003, and stock prices have soared. The value of the largest railroad, the Union Pacific, has tripled since 2001.

This year alone, the railroads will spend nearly $10 billion to add track, build switchyards and terminals, and open tunnels to handle the coming flood of traffic. Freight rail tonnage will rise nearly 90 percent by 2035, according to the Transportation Department.

Why the "future"? Here's one major reason:

The zeitgeist has even dropped a "green" gift in the industry's lap. A train can haul a ton of freight 423 miles on one gallon of diesel fuel, about a 3-to-1 fuel efficiency advantage over 18-wheelers, and the railroad industry is increasingly touting itself as an eco-friendly alternative. Trucking firms also use the rail lines; UPS is the railroad industry's biggest customer.

Read the entire Washington Post article here.

UPDATE: Kunstler writes about this issue in his Monday column:

Now get this: we are sleepwalking into a transportation crisis. As I already said, the airline industry is dying. The price of petroleum-based aviation fuel is killing it. And forget the fantasies about running it on bio-diesel or used french-fry oil. Driving cars will not be an adequate substitute, either. It's imperative that this country gets serious about restoring the passenger rail system. We can't not talk about it for another year. We must demand that the candidates for president speak to this issue. If you who are reading this are active reporters or editors in the news media, you've got to raise your voices behind this issue.

An Interesting Solar Strategy...

One of the biggest challenges to introducing solar power into residences has been the upfront costs.

This article discusses an interesting strategy that several cities are embracing:

But last year, DeVries hit upon a brilliantly simple idea. What if, he asked, the city financed residents' solar rooftops, then levied a 20-year tax assessment on their properties to pay for it? The debt would follow the home, not the owner, and in one fell swoop, the two greatest impediments to home solar would be history.

His bosses ate it up, and Berkeley plans to roll out its new program this summer. City officials will float low-interest municipal bonds to cover the initial costs, and DeVries figures a solar setup factoring in rebates and tax deductions (which can be looked up at dsireusa.org) will cost a single-family household at least $65 a month. Once the system is paid for, the homeowner enjoys free electricity.

DeVries' phone has lately been ringing off the hook as dozens of municipalities look to follow Berkeley's lead.

"Vespanomics"

Very cool.

What Percentage of Your Monthly Income...

...goes toward gasoline for your motor vehicles?

This interesting story (the subject of which is not far from here in Montgomery) gives some general guidelines:

Though drivers across the nation are smarting from the rising price of gas, it is taking a particularly harsh toll here in Wilcox County, where the median household income is $17,500. A recent report by the Oil Price Information Service estimated that residents spend more than 13% of their monthly income on gas -- the highest ratio in the nation. (The study, which also took into account local gas prices and commuting statistics, found that the average Los Angeles County household spends 3.9% of its monthly income on gas.)

A New School Has Been Announced...

...for the Waters TND in Pike Road, Alabama. Above is the artist's rendering.

A Great Cause...

...the Daily Sprawl family will be participating in the Walk of Life for breast cancer this Saturday starting at Cramton Bowl.

It's a great cause and we highly recommend participating. Details can be found here.

Ouch:

The most common subprime loans were known as "2/28" in the industry: 30 years, including a two-year teaser rate before the interest rate rose. Now these loans have reset, and we're seeing the fallout.

But prime borrowers, too, got loans that started out with low payments; if you bought or refinanced your house in the last few years, it's not unlikely that you have one. With an "option ARM" loan you have the "option" (which most borrowers happily take) of paying less than the interest; the magic of "negative amortization." The loan grows until you hit a specified point—the exact point varies with the lender; with Countrywide, it'll come after about four and a half years—when the payment resets to close to twice where it was on Day 1.

Just two banks, Washington Mutual and Countrywide, wrote more than $300 billion worth of option ARMs in the three years from 2005 to 2007, concentrated in California. Others—IndyMac, Golden West (the creator of the option ARM, and now a part of Wachovia)—wrote many billions more. The really amazing thing is that the meltdown in California is already happening and virtually none of these loans have yet reset.

Better Use Those...

...frequent flyer miles asap. According to this article, the airline industry is in major catastrophe mode. Interestingly, the article is not from some crazy outside source but from an industry trade publication.

Pay careful attention to the date of the article.

It was published in 2005 when oil was $60 a barrel--and almost all of the article's short-term predictions are proving accurate.

Train travel, anyone?

UPDATE:

More on the topic, here and here.

"The Story of Stuff"

Watch this fascinating and entertaining set of free videos here.

Books That Seem to Matter...

...we haven't finished it yet, but find it so interesting that The Transition Handbook warrants immediate recommendation.

One note: though the title may sound like another survivalist guidebook, the actual book is not. Instead, it takes a very reasoned and level-headed approach toward the different scenarios that a post-cheap oil world may encounter.

And, in doing so, recognizes that there are opportunities for good results--not just collapse scenarios (scenarii?).

So, Daily Sprawl recommends The Transition Handbook as a book that seems to matter.

"Scenes" from World Made By Hand...

...are now posted on the book's website. Once again, haunting music supported by thought-provoking narrative.

Prohibit Food Fuel...

...here's another instance of the problem with ethanol and other "food fuels":

Many believe that the food crisis is in its infancy and they worry about increasing food-based political instability worldwide.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said this week he's worried that ethanol production is pushing up food prices everywhere, and he called for an urgent review of the issue. Economist Dr. Hazell has said that filling an SUV tank once with ethanol consumes more maize than the typical African eats in a year...

...More profitable biofuel crops have now deprived the food chain of a large supply of corn and other crops, driving up the cost of corn-based food such as corn meal, tortillas, corn syrup and a hundred other crops and products which grace our tables at ever greater cost.

Let us again state this very clearly--in a world with a growing population, yet a finite amount of possible food production--using food (like corn) to create fuel is ridiculously short-sighted. Essentially, what it does is prioritize human transportation methods over human subsistence.

A grave miscalculation of the highest order.

No Aloha?

The recent events here in Hawaii and across the nation make you wonder just how risky is Hawaii's future.

For several years planners and futurists such as the University of Hawaii's James Dator pointed to a condition they call "Peak Oil" as the tipping point. Simply described "Peak Oil" is when the production of the global supply of oil starts to shrink.

Click here and read more.

A New Daily Sprawl Bookmarked Blog: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Yeah, it sounds a little wonkish but the blog actually covers the pending economic challenges in a very approachable manner.

Check it out.

A Cool Tool...

A new Web-based tool developed by the Center for Neighborhood Technology, a Chicago-based urban development think tank, can help put facts behind those daydreams. The CNT developed a Web site, at http://htaindex.cnt.org, that takes into account household expenditures for transportation, along with home prices, to estimate whether a home is truly affordable for households with moderate incomes.

Read the whole story here.

First Major Retailer...

...looks ready to face the effects of peak energy:

Linens 'n Things Inc., a home-furnishings retailer caught by an increasing debt load and shrinking housing market, is expected to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy-court protection by Tuesday, several people familiar with the matter said.

How Soon Until Peak Oil?

This article considers that question:

Fuel prices alone are unlikely to bring America to its senses.
It clearly will take outright shortages with lines at the pumps, curtailed deliveries and many other misfortunes before serious measures to deal with declining oil supplies –- speed limits, rationing, mandatory car pools, improved mass transit -- are taken. Thus the question becomes: how soon?

From a recent email...

I recently participated in an email exchange related to these important sprawl issues. I thought I'd post my response below. Hopefully it helps...

One of the most troubling things in Alabama is that state law prohibits the use of gas tax revenue for non-road building/repair transportation strategies.

What if a portion of the gas tax could be used to facilitate rail transportation between Huntsville, Birmingham, Montgomery, and Mobile?

Or, in a partnership with Georgia and/or Tennessee to extend rail options from Alabama to Nashville and Atlanta?

Ultimately, the long term future of air travel is bleak. Within 10 to 20 years, only the richest of rich will enjoy this perk. The concept of commercial aviation companies like Delta, Southwest, and United will be, at best, nostalgic reminders of a cheap oil era. One that fell victim to the ages-old reality that demand is always defeated by a lack of supply—in this case non-renewable fuels.

The outlook for commercial trucking is even worse. Hybrids and plug-in EVs might salvage some local vehicular travel but not the big rigs. They’ll lose out to the more cost effective (and less energy intensive) rail and river methods of transportation

As members of these communities, we can choose to embrace (and advocate) these issues today or we can continue down the dead-end route of supporting unneeded bypasses and elevated highways—an approach that will simply make the changes forced on us by Peak Energy that much harder to bear.

My Latest Column...

...from Future Montgomery Magazine discusses two downtown mixed-use projects and can be read here.

Grasping at...

...more desperate solutions.

Here's the deal: any "solution" to peak energy whose main goal is to maintain the current auto-centric lifestyle intact is not a solution at all but, rather, a diversion from the fundamental unsustainability of such a system.

It's the equivalent of an entire culture desperately banding together to save the beta-max.

In other words, ridiculously nostalgic, at best.

Getting Greener...

In addition to our local food efforts, the Daily Sprawl family is looking for other incremental ways to reduce our nonrenewable energy use. The idea being that alot of little steps can combine into big ones.

I recently replaced my gas lawn mower with this "reel mower" type. We have a pretty small yard so it works well. Plus, less noise, no fuel cost, and--in general--a better looking yard.

"A Deal with the Devil"

When Brian and Dawn McCausland bought this Colonial on a half acre in Montgomery County in 2004, they made a deal with the devil during a sky-high housing market: They and their four daughters would live here, but Brian would commute 100 miles round-trip to his job as an insurance adjuster in Delaware County.

A gallon of gas at the time was $1.76 - $150 a month for their 2002 Chevy Malibu. It beat paying more for a similar house closer to work.

But now, with gas averaging $3.30 and rising, the McCausland dream is getting soaked at the pump to the tune of $300 a month, or $3,600 a year, double their cost four years ago. They are among many families of modest means who took on big commutes from exurbia for a taste of upward mobility.

Read the whole--sadly all too common--story here.

Headline:

"Foreclosures Come to McMansion Country":

Million-dollar fixer-upper for sale: five bedrooms, four baths, three-car garage, cavernous living room. Big holes above fireplace where flat-screen TV used to hang.

The U.S. housing crisis has come to McMansion country.

Just as the foreclosure crisis has hollowed out poorer neighborhoods, "for sale" signs are sprouting in upscale developments so new they don't show up on GPS navigation screens.

Poor people weren't the only ones who took out risky, high-interest loans during the housing boom. The sharp increase in housing costs -- and the desire to live in brand-new, spacious houses with modern features -- led many affluent buyers to take out loans they couldn't afford.

The consequences of sprawl continue to demonstrate little distinction among its targets. The crazy thing is that there are literally hundreds of thousands of these McMansions, located in isolated places where daily things like a loaf of bread, can only be obtained via a car trip.

Now, the permanent increases in gasoline will make these places incredibly difficult to resell because fewer and fewer will be able to afford the auto-centric lifestyle that they demand.

This whole mess is spiraling and the spiral is getting faster and faster...

Local Food Sourcing

One thing that Daily Sprawl is focusing on these days is an effort to find our food more locally.

Doing so offers a variety of health benefits as well as reduces the need to transport food over large distances--something that will be nearly cost-prohibitive in a post-peak energy situation.

Here in Montgomery, we've started with the following:

1. Joining a Community Supported Agriculture with Bolling Bee Farms

2. Buying our grains, flour, and the like from Oakview Farms Granary

3. Considering the purchase of our meat products from Boutwell Farms

We also buy local eggs from a family at church.

Daily Sprawl will keep our readers updated on this effort to "go local" in response to the present energy and health challenges facing our world.

One Commentator Checks in with...

...his review of Austin, Texas--the venue for the recently completed 2008 Congress for the New Urbanism:

For all of its reputation as a lively place, Austin's city center didn't add up to much. Of course, there was the famous Sixth Street strip of music joints, which in recent years has morphed into a perpetual party scene in the mold of Bourbon Street in New Orleans -- except in the case of Austin, the buildings themselves are little more than packing crates with bars and bandstands, while the side streets are adorned with rows port-a-johns reeking in the impressive heat of the Texas spring.

While Kunstler typically writes more as a cynic, we shared several of his impressions about Austin's urbanism.

All in all, a city full of potential that appears to be slowly being realized. But, if that occurs in the form of those tall condo towers, then the potential is in (to use the words of one infamous Texan) "big time" trouble...

Daily Sprawl Recommends...

...this documentary from the Canadian Broadcast Company.

Click here to learn more about "Radiant City":

Genie Award-winning Radiant City offers an entertaining look at life in suburbia.

While Evan Moss zones out in commuter traffic, Ann toils away in her dream kitchen and the kids play sinister games amidst the fresh foundations of monster houses. Developers call it big business, but the Moss family call it home. Welcome to the neighbourhood and welcome to Radiant City - an entertaining and startling look at 21st century suburbanites and suburban sprawl.

When Sprawl Encroaches on Farmland...

...thanks to one of our readers who forwarded this interesting article discussing the many complex factors involved in sprawl and the effects on agricultural land:

It's quite tempting to sell off a farm in parcels for $20,000 an acre, sometimes much more if an entire farm is being developed. For most landowners, property rights are a priority; farmland preservation less so. As for someone who wants to cash out, it's rare to find anyone willing to leave money on the table.

But the evidence that urban sprawl is a problem continues to mount. Among the many considerations:

* More than 6 million acres—an area the size of Maryland—were taken out of agriculture and developed between 1992 and 1997, according to American Farmland Trust, an organization whose goal is to protect farmland.
* Within the next 32 years, this country will add 100 million people to its population, bringing the total to 400 million. How we use land in that growth will only become more of an issue.
* The argument that people have to live somewhere is easily countered by proof we are planning our spaces poorly. From 1982 to 1997, the U.S. population grew by 17%, but land development grew by 47%, according to American Farmland Trust. Since 1994, 55% of developed land went into 10-plus-acre lots.
* When the editor of this magazine asked readers about their biggest problems, the concern that outweighed all others was newcomers moving to the country.

Daily Sprawl Arrives Today at...

...this year's big CNU event in Austin, Texas.

While Daily Sprawl isn't going car-free this year, we will have some reviews of the walkability scene in Austin.

Look for the updates starting next Monday.

p.s. One thing we'll definitely be doing is joining the rest of the CityLoft Corporation team as they pick up their CNU Charter Award for the A&P Lofts.

Watching Wal-Mart Go Away...

Some people snicker when we suggest this but it is extremely likely that, within the next decade, Wal-Mart and its cheap oil-driven business model will not just slow down but, quite likely, go away.

After all, cheap goods at cheap prices only work if you can cheaply make and transport them. A fact that a Peak Energy marketplace will mercilessly punish.

Yet Another Story...

...on the growing number of potential exurban "ghost towns":

Peek behind the palm trees and there you see the most shocking sight: abandoned swimming pools, fetid and green, left to the elements and choked with algae. Thousands of people have walked away without even draining the water. Mosquito control agents now patrol these murky pools, treating them with pesticides to keep disease-carrying larvae from forming.
“With the skyrocketing foreclosure rate, the problem is compounding daily,” said Jared Dever, a spokesman for the government district that monitors insect breeding grounds. He said about 2,000 abandoned swimming pools would have to be treated in just one part of Riverside County.

Granted, the "ghost town" label is usually hyperbole, but the image of 2,000 abandoned homes and their backyard pools filling with stale water creates a pretty compelling Daily Sprawl picture.

Living in Sprawlanta...

This NPR story examines one Atlanta family and the monetary and time costs they've incurred since moving to Sprawlanta:

Outside metropolitan Atlanta, one of the nation's most congested cities, Michelle Carvalho's dreamhouse is 3,000 square feet. It has five bedrooms, a two-car garage and a big yard.

Her 16-month-old son's day care is 10 minutes away. But Carvalho's real commute, to her job as a cancer prevention researcher at Emory University, can take anywhere from an hour to an hour and a half, depending on traffic.

Meanwhile, this companion NPR story shows how another Atlanta family is living in a much more sustainable way:

The Taylors live in Atlantic Station, a new community in mid-town Atlanta designed to put jobs, homes and shopping all in one place, close to public transportation. Developments like Atlantic Station are springing up around the country, and proponents say they help cut car pollution, including the carbon dioxide that contributes to climate change.